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Farul Constanta vs CS Balotesti — Liga II 2018

Farul Constanta
Farul Constanta
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
CS Balotesti
CS Balotesti
9/2/2018Liga IILiga II · Round 5Stadionul Sparta (Techirghiol)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Farul Constanta67%
×Draw19%
CS Balotesti14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Farul Constanta
2.24
CS Balotesti
0.90

Farul Constanta creates 149% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 19 away

creates per match

Farul Constanta
1.52
CS Balotesti
0.74

allows per match

Farul Constanta
1.05
CS Balotesti
2.95

finishing

Farul Constanta+0.00on par
CS Balotesti+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Farul Constanta ↓

CS Balotesti →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Farul Constanta or draw
86%
Farul Constanta or CS Balotesti
81%
Draw or CS Balotesti
33%

Winning margin

Farul Constanta wins by 2+
44%
CS Balotesti wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Farul Constanta 1+ goals
89%
Farul Constanta 2+ goals
65%
Farul Constanta 3+ goals
38%
CS Balotesti 1+ goals
59%
CS Balotesti 2+ goals
23%
CS Balotesti 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Farul Constanta (draw refunded)
83%
CS Balotesti (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Farul Constanta at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.05 · 42 matches

CS Balotesti away — creates 0.74, concedes 2.95 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Farul Constanta attack 1.52 + CS Balotesti defence 2.95 → ÷2 → 2.24

CS Balotesti attack 0.74 + Farul Constanta defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Farul Constanta scores more
67%
level
19%
CS Balotesti scores more
14%

Farul Constanta at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Farul Constanta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Farul Constanta vs CS Balotesti

Farul Constanta beat CS Balotesti 2-0 in Liga II on September 2, 2018.

The match was played at Stadionul Sparta (Techirghiol).