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CS Balotesti vs Farul Constanta — Liga II 2018

CS Balotesti
CS Balotesti
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Farul Constanta
Farul Constanta
3/9/2019Liga IILiga II · Round 24Stadionul Baloteşti (Baloteşti)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

CS Balotesti33%
×Draw27%
Farul Constanta40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CS Balotesti
1.16
Farul Constanta
1.32

Farul Constanta creates 14% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 45 away

creates per match

CS Balotesti
0.89
Farul Constanta
0.96

allows per match

CS Balotesti
1.68
Farul Constanta
1.42

finishing

CS Balotesti+0.00on par
Farul Constanta+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CS Balotesti ↓

Farul Constanta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

CS Balotesti or draw
60%
CS Balotesti or Farul Constanta
73%
Draw or Farul Constanta
67%

Winning margin

CS Balotesti wins by 2+
13%
Farul Constanta wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

CS Balotesti 1+ goals
69%
CS Balotesti 2+ goals
32%
CS Balotesti 3+ goals
11%
Farul Constanta 1+ goals
73%
Farul Constanta 2+ goals
38%
Farul Constanta 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

CS Balotesti (draw refunded)
45%
Farul Constanta (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CS Balotesti at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.68 · 19 matches

Farul Constanta away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.42 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CS Balotesti attack 0.89 + Farul Constanta defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.16

Farul Constanta attack 0.96 + CS Balotesti defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

CS Balotesti scores more
33%
level
27%
Farul Constanta scores more
40%

Farul Constanta at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Farul Constanta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CS Balotesti vs Farul Constanta

Farul Constanta beat CS Balotesti 1-0 in Liga II on March 9, 2019.

The match was played at Stadionul Baloteşti (Baloteşti).