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Farul Constanta vs CFR 1907 Cluj — Liga I 2026

Farul Constanta
Farul Constanta
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
CFR 1907 Cluj
CFR 1907 Cluj
3/2/2024Liga ILiga I · Round 29Stadionul Central

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

Farul Constanta37%
×Draw27%
CFR 1907 Cluj36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Farul Constanta
1.27
CFR 1907 Cluj
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 100 home / 154 away

creates per match

Farul Constanta
1.59
CFR 1907 Cluj
1.47

allows per match

Farul Constanta
1.04
CFR 1907 Cluj
0.95

finishing

Farul Constanta+0.00on par
CFR 1907 Cluj+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Farul Constanta ↓

CFR 1907 Cluj →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Farul Constanta or draw
64%
Farul Constanta or CFR 1907 Cluj
73%
Draw or CFR 1907 Cluj
63%

Winning margin

Farul Constanta wins by 2+
16%
CFR 1907 Cluj wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Farul Constanta 1+ goals
72%
Farul Constanta 2+ goals
36%
Farul Constanta 3+ goals
14%
CFR 1907 Cluj 1+ goals
71%
CFR 1907 Cluj 2+ goals
36%
CFR 1907 Cluj 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Farul Constanta (draw refunded)
51%
CFR 1907 Cluj (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Farul Constanta at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.04 · 100 matches

CFR 1907 Cluj away — creates 1.47, concedes 0.95 · 154 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Farul Constanta attack 1.59 + CFR 1907 Cluj defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.27

CFR 1907 Cluj attack 1.47 + Farul Constanta defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Farul Constanta scores more
37%
level
27%
CFR 1907 Cluj scores more
36%

Farul Constanta at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Farul Constanta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga I: Farul Constanta 1–1 CFR 1907 Cluj

Farul Constanta and CFR 1907 Cluj drew 1-1 in Liga I on March 2, 2024.

The match was played at Stadionul Central in Ovidiu.