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CFR 1907 Cluj vs Farul Constanta — Liga I 2026

CFR 1907 Cluj
CFR 1907 Cluj
FT
5 – 1
HT: 4 – 0
Farul Constanta
Farul Constanta
5/18/2024Liga ILiga I · Championship Round - 10Stadionul Dr. Constantin Rădulescu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

CFR 1907 Cluj43%
×Draw24%
Farul Constanta33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CFR 1907 Cluj
1.61
Farul Constanta
1.37

CFR 1907 Cluj creates 18% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 8 away

creates per match

CFR 1907 Cluj
1.22
Farul Constanta
1.61

allows per match

CFR 1907 Cluj
1.12
Farul Constanta
2.01

finishing

CFR 1907 Cluj-0.22scores less
Farul Constanta-0.36scores less

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CFR 1907 Cluj ↓

Farul Constanta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

CFR 1907 Cluj or draw
67%
CFR 1907 Cluj or Farul Constanta
76%
Draw or Farul Constanta
57%

Winning margin

CFR 1907 Cluj wins by 2+
22%
Farul Constanta wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

CFR 1907 Cluj 1+ goals
80%
CFR 1907 Cluj 2+ goals
48%
CFR 1907 Cluj 3+ goals
22%
Farul Constanta 1+ goals
75%
Farul Constanta 2+ goals
40%
Farul Constanta 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

CFR 1907 Cluj (draw refunded)
57%
Farul Constanta (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CFR 1907 Cluj at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.12 · 5 matches

Farul Constanta away — creates 1.61, concedes 2.01 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CFR 1907 Cluj attack 1.22 + Farul Constanta defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 1.61

Farul Constanta attack 1.61 + CFR 1907 Cluj defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

CFR 1907 Cluj scores more
43%
level
24%
Farul Constanta scores more
33%

CFR 1907 Cluj at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "CFR 1907 Cluj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CFR 1907 Cluj vs Farul Constanta

CFR 1907 Cluj beat Farul Constanta 5-1 in Liga I on May 18, 2024.

The match was played at Stadionul Dr. Constantin Rădulescu in Cluj-Napoca.