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CFR 1907 Cluj vs Farul Constanta — Liga I 2026

CFR 1907 Cluj
CFR 1907 Cluj
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Farul Constanta
Farul Constanta
1/27/2025Liga ILiga I · Round 23Stadionul Dr. Constantin Rădulescu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 99+ matches

CFR 1907 Cluj52%
×Draw25%
Farul Constanta23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CFR 1907 Cluj
1.56
Farul Constanta
0.93

CFR 1907 Cluj creates 68% more chances

Season form · 156 home / 99 away

creates per match

CFR 1907 Cluj
1.81
Farul Constanta
1.12

allows per match

CFR 1907 Cluj
0.74
Farul Constanta
1.31

finishing

CFR 1907 Cluj+0.00on par
Farul Constanta+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CFR 1907 Cluj ↓

Farul Constanta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

CFR 1907 Cluj or draw
77%
CFR 1907 Cluj or Farul Constanta
75%
Draw or Farul Constanta
48%

Winning margin

CFR 1907 Cluj wins by 2+
27%
Farul Constanta wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

CFR 1907 Cluj 1+ goals
79%
CFR 1907 Cluj 2+ goals
46%
CFR 1907 Cluj 3+ goals
21%
Farul Constanta 1+ goals
61%
Farul Constanta 2+ goals
24%
Farul Constanta 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

CFR 1907 Cluj (draw refunded)
70%
Farul Constanta (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CFR 1907 Cluj at home — creates 1.81, concedes 0.74 · 156 matches

Farul Constanta away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.31 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CFR 1907 Cluj attack 1.81 + Farul Constanta defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.56

Farul Constanta attack 1.12 + CFR 1907 Cluj defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

CFR 1907 Cluj scores more
52%
level
25%
Farul Constanta scores more
23%

CFR 1907 Cluj at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "CFR 1907 Cluj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga I: CFR 1907 Cluj 3–1 Farul Constanta

CFR 1907 Cluj beat Farul Constanta 3-1 in Liga I on January 27, 2025.

The match was played at Stadionul Dr. Constantin Rădulescu in Cluj-Napoca.