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Farul Constanta vs ACS Poli Timisoara — Liga II 2018

Farul Constanta
Farul Constanta
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
ACS Poli Timisoara
ACS Poli Timisoara
8/4/2018Liga IILiga II · Round 1Stadionul Central (Ovidiu)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Farul Constanta60%
×Draw23%
ACS Poli Timisoara17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Farul Constanta
1.76
ACS Poli Timisoara
0.81

Farul Constanta creates 117% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 19 away

creates per match

Farul Constanta
1.52
ACS Poli Timisoara
0.58

allows per match

Farul Constanta
1.05
ACS Poli Timisoara
2.00

finishing

Farul Constanta+0.00on par
ACS Poli Timisoara+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Farul Constanta ↓

ACS Poli Timisoara →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Farul Constanta or draw
83%
Farul Constanta or ACS Poli Timisoara
77%
Draw or ACS Poli Timisoara
40%

Winning margin

Farul Constanta wins by 2+
34%
ACS Poli Timisoara wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Farul Constanta 1+ goals
83%
Farul Constanta 2+ goals
52%
Farul Constanta 3+ goals
26%
ACS Poli Timisoara 1+ goals
56%
ACS Poli Timisoara 2+ goals
19%
ACS Poli Timisoara 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Farul Constanta (draw refunded)
78%
ACS Poli Timisoara (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Farul Constanta at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.05 · 42 matches

ACS Poli Timisoara away — creates 0.58, concedes 2.00 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Farul Constanta attack 1.52 + ACS Poli Timisoara defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.76

ACS Poli Timisoara attack 0.58 + Farul Constanta defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Farul Constanta scores more
60%
level
23%
ACS Poli Timisoara scores more
17%

Farul Constanta at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Farul Constanta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga II: Farul Constanta 4–1 ACS Poli Timisoara

Farul Constanta beat ACS Poli Timisoara 4-1 in Liga II on August 4, 2018.

The match was played at Stadionul Central (Ovidiu).