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ACS Poli Timisoara vs Farul Constanta — Liga II 2018

ACS Poli Timisoara
ACS Poli Timisoara
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Farul Constanta
Farul Constanta
12/1/2018Liga IILiga II · Round 20Stadionul Electrica (Timişoara)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

ACS Poli Timisoara36%
×Draw27%
Farul Constanta37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ACS Poli Timisoara
1.23
Farul Constanta
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 45 away

creates per match

ACS Poli Timisoara
1.05
Farul Constanta
0.96

allows per match

ACS Poli Timisoara
1.53
Farul Constanta
1.42

finishing

ACS Poli Timisoara+0.00on par
Farul Constanta+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ACS Poli Timisoara ↓

Farul Constanta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

ACS Poli Timisoara or draw
63%
ACS Poli Timisoara or Farul Constanta
73%
Draw or Farul Constanta
64%

Winning margin

ACS Poli Timisoara wins by 2+
15%
Farul Constanta wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

ACS Poli Timisoara 1+ goals
71%
ACS Poli Timisoara 2+ goals
35%
ACS Poli Timisoara 3+ goals
13%
Farul Constanta 1+ goals
71%
Farul Constanta 2+ goals
36%
Farul Constanta 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

ACS Poli Timisoara (draw refunded)
49%
Farul Constanta (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ACS Poli Timisoara at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.53 · 19 matches

Farul Constanta away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.42 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ACS Poli Timisoara attack 1.05 + Farul Constanta defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.23

Farul Constanta attack 0.96 + ACS Poli Timisoara defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

ACS Poli Timisoara scores more
36%
level
27%
Farul Constanta scores more
37%

Farul Constanta at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Farul Constanta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: ACS Poli Timisoara vs Farul Constanta

ACS Poli Timisoara beat Farul Constanta 3-0 in Liga II on December 1, 2018.

The match was played at Stadionul Electrica (Timişoara).