Faroe Islands 1–1 Latvia: Result & Stats

Faroe Islands

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Latvia

A. Gregersen 27'

V. Fjodorovs 69'

3/22/2018

Friendlies · Friendlies 2Marbella Football Center - Norte 1 (San Pedro de Alcántara)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Faroe Islands60%

×Draw23%

Latvia17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Faroe IslandsExpected goals in this matchLatvia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

0.80

Faroe Islands

1.75

Latvia

0.80

Faroe Islands creates 119% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 10 away

2.00

creates per match

1.00

0.60

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Faroe Islands

2.00

Latvia

1.00

allows per match

Faroe Islands

0.60

Latvia

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Faroe Islands+0.00on par

Latvia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Faroe Islands ↓

Latvia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Faroe Islands or draw

83%

Faroe Islands or Latvia

77%

Draw or Latvia

40%

Winning margin

Faroe Islands wins by 2+

34%

Latvia wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Faroe Islands 1+ goals

83%

Faroe Islands 2+ goals

52%

Faroe Islands 3+ goals

25%

Latvia 1+ goals

55%

Latvia 2+ goals

19%

Latvia 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Faroe Islands (draw refunded)

78%

Latvia (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Faroe Islands at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

Latvia away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.50 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Faroe Islands attack 2.00 + Latvia defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.75

Latvia attack 1.00 + Faroe Islands defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Faroe Islands scores more

60%

level

23%

Latvia scores more

17%

Faroe Islands at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Faroe Islands will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'

A. Gregersen

53'

O. Laizāns← D. Hmizs

54'

Raivis Andris Jurkovskis

57'

R. Uldriķis← C. Torres

66'

V. Fjodorovs← V. Šabala

69'

V. Fjodorovs

72'

Gints Freimanis

73'

K. í Bartalsstovu← S. Vatnhamar

77'

Jevgenijs Kazacoks

83'

K. Olsen← G. Sørensen

88'

G. Vatnhamar← B. Olsen

90'

Sonni Nattestad

90'

Vitālijs Jagodinskis

Faroe4-4-2

Latvia4-2-3-1

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: L. Olsen

73'▲K. í Bartalsstovu←▼S. Vatnhamar

83'▲K. Olsen←▼G. Sørensen

88'▲G. Vatnhamar←▼B. Olsen

Faroe Islands substitutes

BartalsstovuOlsenVatnhamar

Manager: A. Starkovs

53'▲O. Laizāns←▼D. Hmizs

57'▲R. Uldriķis←▼C. Torres

66'▲V. Fjodorovs←▼V. Šabala

Latvia substitutes

LaizānsUldriķisFjodorovs

Match Recap: Faroe Islands vs Latvia

Faroe Islands and Latvia drew 1-1 in Friendlies on March 22, 2018.

Goals: A. Gregersen (27'), V. Fjodorovs (69').

The match was played at Marbella Football Center - Norte 1 (San Pedro de Alcántara).

Faroe Islands vs Latvia — Friendlies 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Faroe Islands vs Latvia