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Faroe Islands vs Armenia — UEFA Nations League 2018

Faroe Islands
Faroe Islands
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Armenia
Armenia
J. Bjartalíð 85'
J. Benjaminsen 37'
G. Manvelyan 90+3'
L. Zelarayán 44'
10/10/2024UEFA Nations LeagueUEFA Nations League · League C - 3Tórsvøllur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Faroe Islands50%
×Draw22%
Armenia28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Faroe Islands
1.89
Armenia
1.36

Faroe Islands creates 39% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 13 away

creates per match

Faroe Islands
1.55
Armenia
1.46

allows per match

Faroe Islands
1.27
Armenia
2.23

finishing

Faroe Islands+0.00on par
Armenia+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Faroe Islands ↓

Armenia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Faroe Islands or draw
72%
Faroe Islands or Armenia
78%
Draw or Armenia
50%

Winning margin

Faroe Islands wins by 2+
28%
Armenia wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Faroe Islands 1+ goals
85%
Faroe Islands 2+ goals
56%
Faroe Islands 3+ goals
29%
Armenia 1+ goals
74%
Armenia 2+ goals
39%
Armenia 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Faroe Islands (draw refunded)
64%
Armenia (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Faroe Islands at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.27 · 11 matches

Armenia away — creates 1.46, concedes 2.23 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Faroe Islands attack 1.55 + Armenia defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.89

Armenia attack 1.46 + Faroe Islands defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Faroe Islands scores more
50%
level
22%
Armenia scores more
28%

Faroe Islands at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Faroe Islands will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
L. ZelarayánArmeniaArmenia · F
8.3

Match Events

37'
J. Benjaminsen
44'
L. Zelarayán
55'
Grant-Leon Ranos
61'
B. Hendriksson← S. Vatnhamar
61'
P. Knudsen← J. Edmundsson
62'
J. Bjartalíð← H. Agnarsson
67'
E. Sevikyan← H. Harutyunyan
67'
A. Miranyan← G. Ranos
70'
A. Justinussen← M. Olsen
79'
Andrias Edmundsson
82'
R. Joensen← H. Sørensen
85'
J. Bjartalíð
86'
G. Manvelyan← V. Bichakhchyan
87'
Sergey Muradyan
88'
Varazdat Haroyan
90+3'
G. Manvelyan

Possession

43%Faroe

Shots

9Faroe

Pass accuracy

48%Faroe

Statistics

FaroeArmenia
Overview
43%Possession57%
9Total Shots20
4Corners9
10Fouls8
Shots
9Total Shots20
4On Target6
3Off Target5
2Blocked9
7Inside Box8
2Outside Box12
Passing
43%Possession57%
346Total Passes470
265Accurate Passes399
77%Pass Accuracy85%
Goalkeeping
4Saves2
Discipline
10Fouls8
1Yellow Cards3
5Offsides1

Match Recap: Faroe Islands vs Armenia

Faroe Islands and Armenia drew 2-2 in UEFA Nations League on October 10, 2024.

Goals: J. Benjaminsen (37'), L. Zelarayán (44'), J. Bjartalíð (85'), G. Manvelyan (90+3').

Armenia controlled possession (57%) and registered 20 shots to 9.

The match was played at Tórsvøllur in Tórshavn, Streymoy.