Armenia 0–1 Faroe Islands: Result & Stats

Armenia

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Faroe Islands

V. Davidsen 33' (pen)

11/14/2024

UEFA Nations League · League C - 5Vazgen Sargsyan anvan Hanrapetakan Marzadasht

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Armenia40%

×Draw27%

Faroe Islands33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ArmeniaExpected goals in this matchFaroe Islands

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.16

Armenia

1.31

Faroe Islands

1.16

Armenia creates 13% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 11 away

1.25

creates per match

0.64

1.67

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Armenia

1.25

Faroe Islands

0.64

allows per match

Armenia

1.67

Faroe Islands

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Armenia+0.00on par

Faroe Islands+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Armenia ↓

Faroe Islands →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Armenia or draw

67%

Armenia or Faroe Islands

73%

Draw or Faroe Islands

60%

Winning margin

Armenia wins by 2+

18%

Faroe Islands wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Armenia 1+ goals

73%

Armenia 2+ goals

38%

Armenia 3+ goals

14%

Faroe Islands 1+ goals

69%

Faroe Islands 2+ goals

32%

Faroe Islands 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Armenia (draw refunded)

55%

Faroe Islands (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Armenia at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.67 · 12 matches

Faroe Islands away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.36 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Armenia attack 1.25 + Faroe Islands defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.31

Faroe Islands attack 0.64 + Armenia defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Armenia scores more

40%

level

27%

Faroe Islands scores more

33%

Armenia at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Armenia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12

T. Gestsson

Faroe Islands · G

9.5

Match Events

11'

Adrian Justinussen

16'

Hovhannes Hambardzumyan

21'

Jóannes Kalsø Danielsen

31'

Georgiy Harutyunyan

33'

V. DavidsenPenalty

46'

G. Ranos← A. Miranyan

46'

Z. Shaghoyan← E. Sevikyan

62'

H. Sørensen← R. Joensen

68'

P. Knudsen← A. Justinussen

68'

M. Olsen← P. Klettskarð

75'

Zhirayr Shaghoyan

76'

N. Mneney← B. Hendriksson

76'

S. Vatnhamar← J. Bjartalíð

80'

Teitur Gestsson

85'

G. Manvelyan← G. Harutyunyan

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ArmeniaFaroe

Overview

73%Possession27%

25Total Shots2

16Corners1

6Fouls5

Shots

25Total Shots2

9On Target2

10Off Target0

6Blocked0

11Inside Box2

14Outside Box0

Passing

73%Possession27%

673Total Passes258

587Accurate Passes149

87%Pass Accuracy58%

Goalkeeping

1Saves10

Discipline

6Fouls5

3Yellow Cards3

1Offsides1