Farnham Town 1–0 Chertsey Town: Result & Stats

Farnham Town

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Chertsey Town

D. Sanders 58'

3/28/2026

League #60 · Round 37The Memorial Ground Farnham

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Farnham Town70%

×Draw18%

Chertsey Town12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Farnham TownExpected goals in this matchChertsey Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.19

0.76

Farnham Town

2.19

Chertsey Town

0.76

Farnham Town creates 188% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 4 away

2.13

creates per match

0.25

1.27

allows per match

2.25

creates per match

Farnham Town

2.13

Chertsey Town

0.25

allows per match

Farnham Town

1.27

Chertsey Town

2.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Farnham Town+0.00on par

Chertsey Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Farnham Town ↓

Chertsey Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Farnham Town or draw

88%

Farnham Town or Chertsey Town

82%

Draw or Chertsey Town

30%

Winning margin

Farnham Town wins by 2+

46%

Chertsey Town wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Farnham Town 1+ goals

89%

Farnham Town 2+ goals

64%

Farnham Town 3+ goals

37%

Chertsey Town 1+ goals

53%

Chertsey Town 2+ goals

18%

Chertsey Town 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Farnham Town (draw refunded)

86%

Chertsey Town (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Farnham Town at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.27 · 15 matches

Chertsey Town away — creates 0.25, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Farnham Town attack 2.13 + Chertsey Town defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.19

Chertsey Town attack 0.25 + Farnham Town defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Farnham Town scores more

70%

level

18%

Chertsey Town scores more

12%

Farnham Town at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Farnham Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

58'

D. Sanders

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff