Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Chertsey Town vs Farnham Town — League #60 2026

Chertsey Town
Chertsey Town
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Farnham Town
Farnham Town
M. Mackenzie 50'
8/16/2025League #60League #60 · Round 3Alwyns Lane Football Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Chertsey Town52%
×Draw25%
Farnham Town24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chertsey Town
1.63
Farnham Town
1.02

Chertsey Town creates 60% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 13 away

creates per match

Chertsey Town
2.25
Farnham Town
1.54

allows per match

Chertsey Town
0.50
Farnham Town
1.00

finishing

Chertsey Town+0.00on par
Farnham Town+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chertsey Town ↓

Farnham Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Chertsey Town or draw
76%
Chertsey Town or Farnham Town
75%
Draw or Farnham Town
48%

Winning margin

Chertsey Town wins by 2+
27%
Farnham Town wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Chertsey Town 1+ goals
80%
Chertsey Town 2+ goals
48%
Chertsey Town 3+ goals
22%
Farnham Town 1+ goals
64%
Farnham Town 2+ goals
27%
Farnham Town 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Chertsey Town (draw refunded)
68%
Farnham Town (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chertsey Town at home — creates 2.25, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

Farnham Town away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.00 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chertsey Town attack 2.25 + Farnham Town defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.63

Farnham Town attack 1.54 + Chertsey Town defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Chertsey Town scores more
52%
level
25%
Farnham Town scores more
24%

Chertsey Town at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Chertsey Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

50'
M. Mackenzie

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chertsey Town vs Farnham Town

Farnham Town beat Chertsey Town 1-0 in League #60 on August 16, 2025.

Goals: M. Mackenzie (50').

The match was played at Alwyns Lane Football Ground in Chertsey, Surrey.