Farnborough 4–1 Enfield Town: Result & Stats

Farnborough

FT

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Enfield Town

M. Matthews-Lewis 61', 42'

R. Young 51'

R. Chin 47'

H. Ottaway 14'

10/12/2024

League #51 · South - 11Saunders Transport Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Farnborough42%

×Draw21%

Enfield Town37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FarnboroughExpected goals in this matchEnfield Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.95

1.83

Farnborough

1.95

Enfield Town

1.83

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 21 home / 3 away

1.90

creates per match

2.00

1.67

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Farnborough

1.90

Enfield Town

2.00

allows per match

Farnborough

1.67

Enfield Town

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Farnborough+0.00on par

Enfield Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Farnborough ↓

Enfield Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Farnborough or draw

63%

Farnborough or Enfield Town

79%

Draw or Enfield Town

58%

Winning margin

Farnborough wins by 2+

23%

Enfield Town wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Farnborough 1+ goals

86%

Farnborough 2+ goals

58%

Farnborough 3+ goals

31%

Enfield Town 1+ goals

84%

Enfield Town 2+ goals

54%

Enfield Town 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Farnborough (draw refunded)

53%

Enfield Town (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Farnborough at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.67 · 21 matches

Enfield Town away — creates 2.00, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Farnborough attack 1.90 + Enfield Town defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.95

Enfield Town attack 2.00 + Farnborough defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Farnborough scores more

42%

level

21%

Enfield Town scores more

37%

Farnborough at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Farnborough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

H. Ottaway

42'

M. Matthews-Lewis

46'

J. Haigh← H. Kasimu

46'

J. Nembhard← X. Benjamin

47'

51'

55'

61'

65'

70'

J. Oyenuga← D. Adjei-Hersey

70'

O. Knight← H. Ottaway

74'

J. Page← R. Holmes

79'

G. Hollis← J. Casey

79'

R. Beckles-Richards← H. Mills

Farnborough

Enfield

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽2

Manager: S. Day

46'▲J. Haigh←▼H. Kasimu

65'▲D. Bradshaw←▼R. Chin

74'▲J. Page←▼R. Holmes

79'▲G. Hollis←▼J. Casey

Farnborough substitutes

HaighBradshawPageHollisPrince

Manager: G. Macpherson

46'▲J. Nembhard←▼X. Benjamin

55'▲J. Smith←▼B. Leonard

70'▲J. Oyenuga←▼D. Adjei-Hersey

70'▲O. Knight←▼H. Ottaway

79'▲R. Beckles-Richards←▼H. Mills

Enfield Town substitutes

NembhardSmithOyenugaKnightBeckles-Richards

League #51: Farnborough 4–1 Enfield Town

Farnborough beat Enfield Town 4-1 in League #51 on October 12, 2024.

Goals: H. Ottaway (14'), M. Matthews-Lewis (42', 61'), R. Chin (47'), R. Young (51').

The match was played at Saunders Transport Community Stadium in Farnborough, Hampshire.

Farnborough vs Enfield Town — League #51 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

League #51: Farnborough 4–1 Enfield Town