Enfield Town 5–1 Farnborough: Result & Stats

Enfield Town

FT

5 – 1

HT: 3 – 1

Farnborough

L. Reynolds 63', 27', 6'

B. Leonard 49'

C. Dillon 30'

D. Poleon 22'

11/22/2025

League #51 · South - 18Queen Elizabeth II Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Enfield Town55%

×Draw23%

Farnborough22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Enfield TownExpected goals in this matchFarnborough

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

1.08

Enfield Town

1.82

Farnborough

1.08

Enfield Town creates 69% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 21 away

1.75

creates per match

1.67

0.50

allows per match

1.90

creates per match

Enfield Town

1.75

Farnborough

1.67

allows per match

Enfield Town

0.50

Farnborough

1.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Enfield Town+0.00on par

Farnborough+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Enfield Town ↓

Farnborough →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Enfield Town or draw

78%

Enfield Town or Farnborough

77%

Draw or Farnborough

45%

Winning margin

Enfield Town wins by 2+

31%

Farnborough wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Enfield Town 1+ goals

84%

Enfield Town 2+ goals

54%

Enfield Town 3+ goals

27%

Farnborough 1+ goals

66%

Farnborough 2+ goals

29%

Farnborough 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Enfield Town (draw refunded)

71%

Farnborough (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Enfield Town at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

Farnborough away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.90 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Enfield Town attack 1.75 + Farnborough defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.82

Farnborough attack 1.67 + Enfield Town defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Enfield Town scores more

55%

level

23%

Farnborough scores more

22%

Enfield Town at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Enfield Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

22'

27'

30'

49'

63'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff