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Farnborough vs Dorking Wanderers — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Farnborough
Farnborough
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Dorking Wanderers
Dorking Wanderers
C. Cullen 54'
R. Young 25'
A. Kuhl 37'
J. Prior 27'
7/28/2023Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Easy As HGV Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Farnborough19%
×Draw17%
Dorking Wanderers64%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Farnborough
1.56
Dorking Wanderers
2.87

Dorking Wanderers creates 84% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

creates per match

Farnborough
1.80
Dorking Wanderers
2.33

allows per match

Farnborough
3.40
Dorking Wanderers
1.33

finishing

Farnborough+0.00on par
Dorking Wanderers+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Farnborough ↓

Dorking Wanderers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–14%
0–25%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–28%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–26%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
64%36%4.5
44%56%

Double chance

Farnborough or draw
36%
Farnborough or Dorking Wanderers
83%
Draw or Dorking Wanderers
81%

Winning margin

Farnborough wins by 2+
8%
Dorking Wanderers wins by 2+
44%

Team goals

Farnborough 1+ goals
79%
Farnborough 2+ goals
46%
Farnborough 3+ goals
21%
Dorking Wanderers 1+ goals
94%
Dorking Wanderers 2+ goals
77%
Dorking Wanderers 3+ goals
53%

Draw no bet

Farnborough (draw refunded)
23%
Dorking Wanderers (draw refunded)
77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Farnborough at home — creates 1.80, concedes 3.40 · 5 matches

Dorking Wanderers away — creates 2.33, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Farnborough attack 1.80 + Dorking Wanderers defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.56

Dorking Wanderers attack 2.33 + Farnborough defence 3.40 → ÷2 → 2.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Farnborough scores more
19%
level
17%
Dorking Wanderers scores more
64%

Dorking Wanderers at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Dorking Wanderers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'
R. Young
27'
J. Prior
37'
A. Kuhl
54'
C. Cullen

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Farnborough vs Dorking Wanderers

Farnborough and Dorking Wanderers drew 2-2 in Friendlies Clubs on July 28, 2023.

Goals: R. Young (25'), J. Prior (27'), A. Kuhl (37'), C. Cullen (54').

The match was played at Easy As HGV Stadium in Farnborough, Hampshire.