Dorking Wanderers 2–2 Farnborough: Result & Stats

Dorking Wanderers

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Farnborough

B. Camp 19'

A. Rutherford 1'

R. Young 81'

R. Holmes 31'

2/22/2025

League #51 · South - 34Meadowbank Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Dorking Wanderers53%

×Draw20%

Farnborough27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dorking WanderersExpected goals in this matchFarnborough

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.35

1.64

Dorking Wanderers

2.35

Farnborough

1.64

Dorking Wanderers creates 43% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 21 away

2.80

creates per match

1.67

1.60

allows per match

1.90

creates per match

Dorking Wanderers

2.80

Farnborough

1.67

allows per match

Dorking Wanderers

1.60

Farnborough

1.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dorking Wanderers+0.00on par

Farnborough+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dorking Wanderers ↓

Farnborough →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

Dorking Wanderers or draw

73%

Dorking Wanderers or Farnborough

80%

Draw or Farnborough

47%

Winning margin

Dorking Wanderers wins by 2+

33%

Farnborough wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Dorking Wanderers 1+ goals

90%

Dorking Wanderers 2+ goals

68%

Dorking Wanderers 3+ goals

41%

Farnborough 1+ goals

81%

Farnborough 2+ goals

49%

Farnborough 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Dorking Wanderers (draw refunded)

66%

Farnborough (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dorking Wanderers at home — creates 2.80, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

Farnborough away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.90 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dorking Wanderers attack 2.80 + Farnborough defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 2.35

Farnborough attack 1.67 + Dorking Wanderers defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Dorking Wanderers scores more

53%

level

20%

Farnborough scores more

27%

Dorking Wanderers at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Dorking Wanderers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'

A. Rutherford

19'

B. Camp

31'

R. Holmes

46'

A. Pavey← B. Acey

54'

M. Williams← A. Rutherford

62'

J. Young← D. Gallagher

77'

G. Francomb← B. Camp

81'

R. Young

84'

R. Murphy← C. Carter

86'

N. McManus← J. Norville-Williams

90+3'

D. Bradshaw← R. Chin

Dorking

Farnborough

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Rutherfor

Taylor

Manager: M. White

54'▲M. Williams←▼A. Rutherford

62'▲J. Young←▼D. Gallagher

77'▲G. Francomb←▼B. Camp

84'▲R. Murphy←▼C. Carter

86'▲N. McManus←▼J. Norville-Williams

Dorking Wanderers substitutes

WilliamsYoungFrancombMurphyMcManus

Manager: S. Day

46'▲A. Pavey←▼B. Acey

90+3'▲D. Bradshaw←▼R. Chin

Farnborough substitutes

PaveyBradshawBatesonMacArthurHart