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Farnborough vs Aldershot Town — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Farnborough
Farnborough
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Aldershot Town
Aldershot Town
A. Pavey 33'
J. Barham 67'
7/18/2023Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Easy As HGV Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Farnborough13%
×Draw14%
Aldershot Town73%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Farnborough
1.40
Aldershot Town
3.30

Aldershot Town creates 136% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 14 away

creates per match

Farnborough
1.80
Aldershot Town
3.21

allows per match

Farnborough
3.40
Aldershot Town
1.00

finishing

Farnborough+0.00on par
Aldershot Town+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Farnborough ↓

Aldershot Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–25%
0–36%
0–45%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–27%
1–38%
1–47%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–25%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (8%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
84%16%3.5
67%33%4.5
48%52%

Double chance

Farnborough or draw
27%
Farnborough or Aldershot Town
86%
Draw or Aldershot Town
87%

Winning margin

Farnborough wins by 2+
5%
Aldershot Town wins by 2+
54%

Team goals

Farnborough 1+ goals
75%
Farnborough 2+ goals
41%
Farnborough 3+ goals
17%
Aldershot Town 1+ goals
96%
Aldershot Town 2+ goals
83%
Aldershot Town 3+ goals
62%

Draw no bet

Farnborough (draw refunded)
15%
Aldershot Town (draw refunded)
85%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Farnborough at home — creates 1.80, concedes 3.40 · 5 matches

Aldershot Town away — creates 3.21, concedes 1.00 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Farnborough attack 1.80 + Aldershot Town defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.40

Aldershot Town attack 3.21 + Farnborough defence 3.40 → ÷2 → 3.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Farnborough scores more
13%
level
14%
Aldershot Town scores more
73%

Aldershot Town at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Aldershot Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

33'
A. Pavey
60'
L. Tolaj
67'
J. Barham

Statistics

FarnboroughAldershot
Overview
3Corners9

Friendlies Clubs: Farnborough 1–1 Aldershot Town

Farnborough and Aldershot Town drew 1-1 in Friendlies Clubs on July 18, 2023.

Goals: A. Pavey (33'), J. Barham (67').

The match was played at Easy As HGV Stadium in Farnborough, Hampshire.