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Aldershot Town vs Farnborough — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Aldershot Town
Aldershot Town
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Farnborough
Farnborough
J. Gilbert 66'
T. Dyce 41'
R. Smith 88'
7/18/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Aldershot Town28%
×Draw24%
Farnborough48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aldershot Town
1.23
Farnborough
1.67

Farnborough creates 36% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

creates per match

Aldershot Town
1.67
Farnborough
2.00

allows per match

Aldershot Town
1.33
Farnborough
0.80

finishing

Aldershot Town+0.00on par
Farnborough+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aldershot Town ↓

Farnborough →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Aldershot Town or draw
52%
Aldershot Town or Farnborough
76%
Draw or Farnborough
72%

Winning margin

Aldershot Town wins by 2+
12%
Farnborough wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Aldershot Town 1+ goals
71%
Aldershot Town 2+ goals
35%
Aldershot Town 3+ goals
13%
Farnborough 1+ goals
81%
Farnborough 2+ goals
50%
Farnborough 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Aldershot Town (draw refunded)
37%
Farnborough (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aldershot Town at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Farnborough away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aldershot Town attack 1.67 + Farnborough defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.23

Farnborough attack 2.00 + Aldershot Town defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Aldershot Town scores more
28%
level
24%
Farnborough scores more
48%

Farnborough at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Farnborough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

41'
T. Dyce
66'
J. Gilbert
88'
R. Smith
Aldershot
Farnborough
John Coleman
Manager: John Coleman
S. Day
Manager: S. Day

Friendlies Clubs: Aldershot Town 2–1 Farnborough

Aldershot Town beat Farnborough 2-1 in Friendlies Clubs on July 18, 2026.

Goals: T. Dyce (41'), J. Gilbert (66'), R. Smith (88').