Farense 5–2 Benfica B: Result & Stats

Farense

FT

5 – 2

HT: 3 – 2

Benfica B

Pedro Henrique 57', 37'

Cristian Ponde 48', 10'

Elves 27'

Gerson Sousa 21'

Henrique Araújo 17'

1/15/2023

Segunda Liga · Round 16Estádio de São Lúis

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Farense44%

×Draw26%

Benfica B30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FarenseExpected goals in this matchBenfica B

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.16

Farense

1.48

Benfica B

1.16

Farense creates 28% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 125 away

1.37

creates per match

1.37

0.95

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Farense

1.37

Benfica B

1.37

allows per match

Farense

0.95

Benfica B

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Farense+0.00on par

Benfica B+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Farense ↓

Benfica B →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Farense or draw

70%

Farense or Benfica B

74%

Draw or Benfica B

56%

Winning margin

Farense wins by 2+

22%

Benfica B wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Farense 1+ goals

77%

Farense 2+ goals

43%

Farense 3+ goals

19%

Benfica B 1+ goals

69%

Benfica B 2+ goals

32%

Benfica B 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Farense (draw refunded)

60%

Benfica B (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Farense at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.95 · 75 matches

Benfica B away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.58 · 125 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Farense attack 1.37 + Benfica B defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.48

Benfica B attack 1.37 + Farense defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Farense scores more

44%

level

26%

Benfica B scores more

30%

Farense at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Farense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

17'

21'

27'

29'

29'

37'

46'

48'

57'

62'

Diogo Capitão← Tiago Cóser

62'

Maestro← Paulo Bernardo

66'

Z. Muscat← Cláudio Falcão

66'

Rui Costa← Elves

73'

Miguel Bandarra← Cristian Ponde

73'

Mattheus Oliveira← Fabrício Isidoro

77'

Pedro Santos← Gerson Sousa

77'

Luís Semedo← Henrique Pereira

80'

Filipe Cruz← João Tomé

83'

Diogo Viana← Abner

Possession

Shots

Statistics

FarenseBenfica

Overview

56%Possession44%

14Total Shots8

4Corners5

10Fouls11

Shots

14Total Shots8

10On Target5

3Off Target2

1Blocked1

Passing

56%Possession44%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

Discipline

10Fouls11

1Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards1

3Offsides1