Benfica B 0–1 Farense: Result & Stats

Benfica B

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Farense

Rui Costa 90+5'

5/19/2023

Segunda Liga · Round 33Caixa Futebol Campus

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Benfica B41%

×Draw27%

Farense32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Benfica BExpected goals in this matchFarense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.14

Benfica B

1.33

Farense

1.14

Benfica B creates 17% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 76 away

1.54

creates per match

1.04

1.23

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

Benfica B

1.54

Farense

1.04

allows per match

Benfica B

1.23

Farense

1.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Benfica B+0.00on par

Farense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Benfica B ↓

Farense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Benfica B or draw

68%

Benfica B or Farense

73%

Draw or Farense

59%

Winning margin

Benfica B wins by 2+

19%

Farense wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Benfica B 1+ goals

74%

Benfica B 2+ goals

38%

Benfica B 3+ goals

15%

Farense 1+ goals

68%

Farense 2+ goals

32%

Farense 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Benfica B (draw refunded)

56%

Farense (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Benfica B at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.23 · 128 matches

Farense away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.11 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Benfica B attack 1.54 + Farense defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.33

Farense attack 1.04 + Benfica B defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Benfica B scores more

41%

level

27%

Farense scores more

32%

Benfica B at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Benfica B will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

40'

Gerson Sousa← Henrique Pereira

60'

Pedro Henrique

61'

Martim Neto

62'

Vítor Gonçalves← Fabrício Isidoro

73'

Elves← Mattheus Oliveira

73'

Rui Costa← Pedro Henrique

76'

Zach Muscat

85'

Lucão← Cristian Ponde

85'

Talocha← Abner

90+4'

Talocha

90+2'

Diego Moreira← Pedro Santos

90+5'

Rui Costa

Possession

Shots

Statistics

BenficaFarense

Overview

40%Possession60%

9Total Shots11

5Corners5

13Fouls13

Shots

9Total Shots11

1On Target4

6Off Target6

2Blocked1

Passing

40%Possession60%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

13Fouls13

1Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

1Offsides1