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FarDu vs Lokomotiv — Pro League A 2026

FarDu
FarDu
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Lokomotiv
Lokomotiv
S. Kodirov 27'
A. Shulaia 56'
J. Khakimov 19'
4/12/2025Pro League APro League A · Round 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

FarDu35%
×Draw25%
Lokomotiv40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FarDu
1.36
Lokomotiv
1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 10 away

creates per match

FarDu
1.62
Lokomotiv
1.80

allows per match

FarDu
1.15
Lokomotiv
1.10

finishing

FarDu+0.00on par
Lokomotiv+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FarDu ↓

Lokomotiv →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

FarDu or draw
60%
FarDu or Lokomotiv
75%
Draw or Lokomotiv
65%

Winning margin

FarDu wins by 2+
16%
Lokomotiv wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

FarDu 1+ goals
74%
FarDu 2+ goals
39%
FarDu 3+ goals
16%
Lokomotiv 1+ goals
77%
Lokomotiv 2+ goals
43%
Lokomotiv 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

FarDu (draw refunded)
46%
Lokomotiv (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FarDu at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

Lokomotiv away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.10 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FarDu attack 1.62 + Lokomotiv defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.36

Lokomotiv attack 1.80 + FarDu defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

FarDu scores more
35%
level
25%
Lokomotiv scores more
40%

Lokomotiv at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Lokomotiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'
J. Khakimov
27'
S. Kodirov
56'
A. Shulaia
FarDu
Lokomotiv
S. Lebedev
Manager: S. Lebedev
G. Kolosovskii
Manager: G. Kolosovskii

Match Recap: FarDu vs Lokomotiv

Lokomotiv beat FarDu 2-1 in Pro League A on April 12, 2025.

Goals: J. Khakimov (19'), S. Kodirov (27'), A. Shulaia (56').