Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

FarDu vs Aral — Pro League A 2026

FarDu
FarDu
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Aral
Aral
S. Bashriddinov 32'
B. Farkhodov 76'
10/27/2025Pro League APro League A · Round 18

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

FarDu46%
×Draw25%
Aral29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FarDu
1.52
Aral
1.16

FarDu creates 31% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 29 away

creates per match

FarDu
1.62
Aral
1.17

allows per match

FarDu
1.15
Aral
1.41

finishing

FarDu+0.00on par
Aral+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FarDu ↓

Aral →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

FarDu or draw
71%
FarDu or Aral
75%
Draw or Aral
54%

Winning margin

FarDu wins by 2+
23%
Aral wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

FarDu 1+ goals
78%
FarDu 2+ goals
45%
FarDu 3+ goals
20%
Aral 1+ goals
69%
Aral 2+ goals
32%
Aral 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

FarDu (draw refunded)
61%
Aral (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FarDu at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

Aral away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.41 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FarDu attack 1.62 + Aral defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.52

Aral attack 1.17 + FarDu defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

FarDu scores more
46%
level
25%
Aral scores more
29%

FarDu at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "FarDu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

32'
S. Bashriddinov
76'
B. Farkhodov
90+4'
M. Nomozov
90+4'
M. Nomozov
FarDu
Aral
S. Lebedev
Manager: S. Lebedev
V. Shodimatov
Manager: V. Shodimatov

FarDu 1 – 1 Aral

FarDu and Aral drew 1-1 in Pro League A on October 27, 2025.

Goals: S. Bashriddinov (32'), B. Farkhodov (76').