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Aral vs FarDu — Pro League A 2026

Aral
Aral
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
FarDu
FarDu
A. Bahromov 90'
M. Daryabaev 10'
4/26/2026Pro League APro League A · Round 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Aral64%
×Draw22%
FarDu14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aral
1.82
FarDu
0.71

Aral creates 156% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 16 away

creates per match

Aral
1.90
FarDu
0.88

allows per match

Aral
0.53
FarDu
1.75

finishing

Aral+0.00on par
FarDu+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aral ↓

FarDu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Aral or draw
86%
Aral or FarDu
78%
Draw or FarDu
36%

Winning margin

Aral wins by 2+
38%
FarDu wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Aral 1+ goals
84%
Aral 2+ goals
54%
Aral 3+ goals
27%
FarDu 1+ goals
51%
FarDu 2+ goals
16%
FarDu 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Aral (draw refunded)
82%
FarDu (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aral at home — creates 1.90, concedes 0.53 · 30 matches

FarDu away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.75 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aral attack 1.90 + FarDu defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.82

FarDu attack 0.88 + Aral defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Aral scores more
64%
level
22%
FarDu scores more
14%

Aral at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Aral will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'
M. Daryabaev
90'
A. Bahromov
Aral
FarDu
Vadim Shodimatov
Manager: Vadim Shodimatov
S. Lebedev
Manager: S. Lebedev

Pro League A: Aral 2–0 FarDu

Aral beat FarDu 2-0 in Pro League A on April 26, 2026.

Goals: M. Daryabaev (10'), A. Bahromov (90').