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FAR Rabat vs CR Khemis Zemamra — Cup 2020

FAR Rabat
FAR Rabat
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
CR Khemis Zemamra
CR Khemis Zemamra
5/21/2025CupCup · 8th FinalsStade Municipal de Kénitra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

FAR Rabat55%
×Draw24%
CR Khemis Zemamra22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FAR Rabat
1.75
CR Khemis Zemamra
1.00

FAR Rabat creates 75% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

creates per match

FAR Rabat
1.71
CR Khemis Zemamra
1.00

allows per match

FAR Rabat
1.00
CR Khemis Zemamra
1.80

finishing

FAR Rabat+0.00on par
CR Khemis Zemamra+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FAR Rabat ↓

CR Khemis Zemamra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

FAR Rabat or draw
78%
FAR Rabat or CR Khemis Zemamra
76%
Draw or CR Khemis Zemamra
45%

Winning margin

FAR Rabat wins by 2+
31%
CR Khemis Zemamra wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

FAR Rabat 1+ goals
83%
FAR Rabat 2+ goals
52%
FAR Rabat 3+ goals
25%
CR Khemis Zemamra 1+ goals
63%
CR Khemis Zemamra 2+ goals
26%
CR Khemis Zemamra 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

FAR Rabat (draw refunded)
72%
CR Khemis Zemamra (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FAR Rabat at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

CR Khemis Zemamra away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FAR Rabat attack 1.71 + CR Khemis Zemamra defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.75

CR Khemis Zemamra attack 1.00 + FAR Rabat defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

FAR Rabat scores more
55%
level
24%
CR Khemis Zemamra scores more
22%

FAR Rabat at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "FAR Rabat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: FAR Rabat 3–0 CR Khemis Zemamra

FAR Rabat beat CR Khemis Zemamra 3-0 in Cup on May 21, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Kénitra in Kénitra.