CR Khemis Zemamra 1–2 FAR Rabat: Result & Stats

CR Khemis Zemamra

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

FAR Rabat

3/8/2025

Botola Pro · Round 24Stade Ahmed Choukri

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

CR Khemis Zemamra33%

×Draw28%

FAR Rabat39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CR Khemis ZemamraExpected goals in this matchFAR Rabat

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

1.21

CR Khemis Zemamra

1.08

FAR Rabat

1.21

FAR Rabat creates 12% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 120 away

1.25

creates per match

1.40

1.03

allows per match

0.92

creates per match

CR Khemis Zemamra

1.25

FAR Rabat

1.40

allows per match

CR Khemis Zemamra

1.03

FAR Rabat

0.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CR Khemis Zemamra+0.00on par

FAR Rabat+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CR Khemis Zemamra ↓

FAR Rabat →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

CR Khemis Zemamra or draw

61%

CR Khemis Zemamra or FAR Rabat

72%

Draw or FAR Rabat

67%

Winning margin

CR Khemis Zemamra wins by 2+

13%

FAR Rabat wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

CR Khemis Zemamra 1+ goals

66%

CR Khemis Zemamra 2+ goals

29%

CR Khemis Zemamra 3+ goals

10%

FAR Rabat 1+ goals

70%

FAR Rabat 2+ goals

34%

FAR Rabat 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

CR Khemis Zemamra (draw refunded)

46%

FAR Rabat (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CR Khemis Zemamra at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.03 · 75 matches

FAR Rabat away — creates 1.40, concedes 0.92 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CR Khemis Zemamra attack 1.25 + FAR Rabat defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.08

FAR Rabat attack 1.40 + CR Khemis Zemamra defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

CR Khemis Zemamra scores more

33%

level

28%

FAR Rabat scores more

39%

FAR Rabat at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "FAR Rabat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff