FAR Rabat 1–1 Al Ahly: Result & Stats

FAR Rabat

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Al Ahly

M. Bouriga 37'

Trezeguet 68'

11/28/2025

CAF Champions League · Round 2Stade Olympique de Rabat

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

FAR Rabat45%

×Draw29%

Al Ahly26%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FAR RabatExpected goals in this matchAl Ahly

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

0.87

FAR Rabat

1.25

Al Ahly

0.87

FAR Rabat creates 44% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 45 away

1.88

creates per match

1.24

0.50

allows per match

0.62

creates per match

FAR Rabat

1.88

Al Ahly

1.24

allows per match

FAR Rabat

0.50

Al Ahly

0.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FAR Rabat+0.00on par

Al Ahly+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FAR Rabat ↓

Al Ahly →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

FAR Rabat or draw

74%

FAR Rabat or Al Ahly

71%

Draw or Al Ahly

55%

Winning margin

FAR Rabat wins by 2+

20%

Al Ahly wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

FAR Rabat 1+ goals

71%

FAR Rabat 2+ goals

36%

FAR Rabat 3+ goals

13%

Al Ahly 1+ goals

58%

Al Ahly 2+ goals

22%

Al Ahly 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

FAR Rabat (draw refunded)

64%

Al Ahly (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FAR Rabat at home — creates 1.88, concedes 0.50 · 16 matches

Al Ahly away — creates 1.24, concedes 0.62 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FAR Rabat attack 1.88 + Al Ahly defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 1.25

Al Ahly attack 1.24 + FAR Rabat defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

FAR Rabat scores more

45%

level

29%

Al Ahly scores more

26%

FAR Rabat at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "FAR Rabat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

31

O. Shobeir

Al Ahly · G

7.5

Match Events

7'

Zizo

37'

M. Bouriga

52'

Fallou Formose Mendy

58'

T. Mohamed← M. Sherif

59'

K. Ouarkhane Alt← M. Bouriga

67'

M. Shokry← A. Kouka

67'

M. Ben Romdhane← A. Dieng

68'

Trezeguet↳ M. Ben Romdhane

81'

R. Slim← A. Hammoudan

81'

J. Ech Chamakh← To Carneiro

81'

E. Ashour← A. Bencharki

90+6'

Marouane Louadni

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FARAl

Overview

47%Possession53%

13Total Shots13

4Corners3

10Fouls9

Shots

13Total Shots13

4On Target1

6Off Target7

3Blocked5

12Inside Box9

1Outside Box4

Passing

47%Possession53%

377Total Passes431

312Accurate Passes345

83%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

Discipline

10Fouls9

2Yellow Cards1

3Offsides3