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Al Ahly vs FAR Rabat — CAF Champions League 2019

Al Ahly
Al Ahly
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
FAR Rabat
FAR Rabat
2/15/2026CAF Champions LeagueCAF Champions League · Round 6Cairo International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Al Ahly61%
×Draw23%
FAR Rabat15%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Ahly
1.71
FAR Rabat
0.71

Al Ahly creates 141% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 16 away

creates per match

Al Ahly
2.42
FAR Rabat
0.88

allows per match

Al Ahly
0.53
FAR Rabat
1.00

finishing

Al Ahly+0.00on par
FAR Rabat+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Ahly ↓

FAR Rabat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Al Ahly or draw
85%
Al Ahly or FAR Rabat
77%
Draw or FAR Rabat
39%

Winning margin

Al Ahly wins by 2+
35%
FAR Rabat wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Al Ahly 1+ goals
82%
Al Ahly 2+ goals
51%
Al Ahly 3+ goals
24%
FAR Rabat 1+ goals
51%
FAR Rabat 2+ goals
16%
FAR Rabat 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Al Ahly (draw refunded)
80%
FAR Rabat (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Ahly at home — creates 2.42, concedes 0.53 · 45 matches

FAR Rabat away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.00 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Ahly attack 2.42 + FAR Rabat defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.71

FAR Rabat attack 0.88 + Al Ahly defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Al Ahly scores more
61%
level
23%
FAR Rabat scores more
15%

Al Ahly at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Al Ahly will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6
Y. IbrahimAl AhlyAl Ahly · D
8.2

Match Events

38'
Tó Carneiro
42'
Taher Mohamed
42'
Mohamed Rabie Hrimat
46'
N. Mbemba← Y. Abdelhamid
46'
K. Ouarkhane Alt← Z. Derrag
47'
Hamza Khabba
65'
E. Ashour← M. Attia
75'
Y. Belammari← A. Kouka
75'
Ieltsin Camoes← M. Otaka
77'
J. E. El Khfiyef← H. Khabba
85'
H. El Shahat← T. Mohamed
87'
R. Slim← A. Hadraf
88'
Ahmed Reda Tagnaouti
90+2'
A. Hammoudan←

Possession

68%Al

Shots

16Al

Pass accuracy

54%Al

Statistics

AlFAR
Overview
68%Possession32%
16Total Shots2
0.95Expected Goals (xG)0.04
4Corners3
11Fouls15
Shots
16Total Shots2
7On Target0
7Off Target2
2Blocked0
10Inside Box1
6Outside Box1
Passing
68%Possession32%
617Total Passes289
538Accurate Passes213
87%Pass Accuracy74%
Goalkeeping
1Saves6
0.46Goals Prevented0.46
Discipline
11Fouls15
1Yellow Cards4
1Offsides2

CAF Champions League: Al Ahly 0–0 FAR Rabat

Al Ahly and FAR Rabat drew 0-0 in CAF Champions League on February 15, 2026.

Al Ahly controlled possession (68%) and registered 16 shots to 2.

The match was played at Cairo International Stadium in Cairo.