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FAP vs Budučnost Krušik — Srpska Liga - West 2019

FAP
FAP
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Budučnost Krušik
Budučnost Krušik
4/23/2025Srpska Liga - WestSrpska Liga - West · West - 23Stadion Priboj

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

FAP62%
×Draw23%
Budučnost Krušik15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FAP
1.79
Budučnost Krušik
0.74

FAP creates 142% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 86 away

creates per match

FAP
2.20
Budučnost Krušik
0.91

allows per match

FAP
0.58
Budučnost Krušik
1.37

finishing

FAP+0.00on par
Budučnost Krušik+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FAP ↓

Budučnost Krušik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

FAP or draw
85%
FAP or Budučnost Krušik
77%
Draw or Budučnost Krušik
38%

Winning margin

FAP wins by 2+
36%
Budučnost Krušik wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

FAP 1+ goals
83%
FAP 2+ goals
53%
FAP 3+ goals
26%
Budučnost Krušik 1+ goals
52%
Budučnost Krušik 2+ goals
17%
Budučnost Krušik 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

FAP (draw refunded)
81%
Budučnost Krušik (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FAP at home — creates 2.20, concedes 0.58 · 45 matches

Budučnost Krušik away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.37 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FAP attack 2.20 + Budučnost Krušik defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.79

Budučnost Krušik attack 0.91 + FAP defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

FAP scores more
62%
level
23%
Budučnost Krušik scores more
15%

FAP at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "FAP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FAP vs Budučnost Krušik

FAP and Budučnost Krušik drew 1-1 in Srpska Liga - West on April 23, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Priboj in Priboj.