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Budučnost Krušik vs FAP — Srpska Liga - West 2019

Budučnost Krušik
Budučnost Krušik
FT
1 – 0
FAP
FAP
4/15/2023Srpska Liga - WestSrpska Liga - West · West - 21Park Pećina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Budučnost Krušik37%
×Draw28%
FAP35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Budučnost Krušik
1.19
FAP
1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 85 home / 45 away

creates per match

Budučnost Krušik
1.47
FAP
1.51

allows per match

Budučnost Krušik
0.76
FAP
0.91

finishing

Budučnost Krušik+0.00on par
FAP+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Budučnost Krušik ↓

FAP →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Budučnost Krušik or draw
65%
Budučnost Krušik or FAP
72%
Draw or FAP
63%

Winning margin

Budučnost Krušik wins by 2+
16%
FAP wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Budučnost Krušik 1+ goals
70%
Budučnost Krušik 2+ goals
33%
Budučnost Krušik 3+ goals
12%
FAP 1+ goals
68%
FAP 2+ goals
32%
FAP 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Budučnost Krušik (draw refunded)
52%
FAP (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Budučnost Krušik at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.76 · 85 matches

FAP away — creates 1.51, concedes 0.91 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Budučnost Krušik attack 1.47 + FAP defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.19

FAP attack 1.51 + Budučnost Krušik defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Budučnost Krušik scores more
37%
level
28%
FAP scores more
35%

Budučnost Krušik at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Budučnost Krušik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Budučnost Krušik vs FAP

Budučnost Krušik beat FAP 1-0 in Srpska Liga - West on April 15, 2023.

The match was played at Park Pećina in Valjevo.