FAP 0–1 Aigle Royal: Result & Stats | Elite Two

FAP

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Aigle Royal

3/1/2025

Elite Two · Round 10

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

FAP42%

×Draw28%

Aigle Royal30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FAPExpected goals in this matchAigle Royal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.04

FAP

1.28

Aigle Royal

1.04

FAP creates 23% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 17 away

1.32

creates per match

1.29

0.78

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

FAP

1.32

Aigle Royal

1.29

allows per match

FAP

0.78

Aigle Royal

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FAP+0.00on par

Aigle Royal+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FAP ↓

Aigle Royal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

FAP or draw

70%

FAP or Aigle Royal

72%

Draw or Aigle Royal

58%

Winning margin

FAP wins by 2+

19%

Aigle Royal wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

FAP 1+ goals

72%

FAP 2+ goals

37%

FAP 3+ goals

14%

Aigle Royal 1+ goals

65%

Aigle Royal 2+ goals

28%

Aigle Royal 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

FAP (draw refunded)

58%

Aigle Royal (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FAP at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.78 · 50 matches

Aigle Royal away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.24 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FAP attack 1.32 + Aigle Royal defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.28

Aigle Royal attack 1.29 + FAP defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

FAP scores more

42%

level

28%

Aigle Royal scores more

30%

FAP at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "FAP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff