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Aigle Royal vs FAP — Elite Two 2020

Aigle Royal
Aigle Royal
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
FAP
FAP
12/14/2024Elite TwoElite Two · Round 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Aigle Royal46%
×Draw26%
FAP28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aigle Royal
1.47
FAP
1.10

Aigle Royal creates 34% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 50 away

creates per match

Aigle Royal
1.50
FAP
1.32

allows per match

Aigle Royal
0.89
FAP
1.44

finishing

Aigle Royal+0.00on par
FAP+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aigle Royal ↓

FAP →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Aigle Royal or draw
72%
Aigle Royal or FAP
74%
Draw or FAP
54%

Winning margin

Aigle Royal wins by 2+
22%
FAP wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Aigle Royal 1+ goals
77%
Aigle Royal 2+ goals
43%
Aigle Royal 3+ goals
18%
FAP 1+ goals
67%
FAP 2+ goals
30%
FAP 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Aigle Royal (draw refunded)
62%
FAP (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aigle Royal at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.89 · 18 matches

FAP away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.44 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aigle Royal attack 1.50 + FAP defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.47

FAP attack 1.32 + Aigle Royal defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Aigle Royal scores more
46%
level
26%
FAP scores more
28%

Aigle Royal at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Aigle Royal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Aigle Royal vs FAP

FAP beat Aigle Royal 1-0 in Elite Two on December 14, 2024.