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Fana vs Årdal — 3. Division - Girone 1 2020

Fana
Fana
FT
5 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Årdal
Årdal
5/16/20243. Division - Girone 13. Division - Girone 1 · Group 1 - 7Nesttun Kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Fana72%
×Draw14%
Årdal14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fana
3.33
Årdal
1.48

Fana creates 125% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 13 away

creates per match

Fana
2.73
Årdal
1.54

allows per match

Fana
1.42
Årdal
3.92

finishing

Fana+0.00on par
Årdal+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fana ↓

Årdal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–14%
1–23%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–17%
4–25%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
69%31%4.5
50%50%

Double chance

Fana or draw
86%
Fana or Årdal
86%
Draw or Årdal
28%

Winning margin

Fana wins by 2+
53%
Årdal wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Fana 1+ goals
96%
Fana 2+ goals
84%
Fana 3+ goals
63%
Årdal 1+ goals
77%
Årdal 2+ goals
43%
Årdal 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Fana (draw refunded)
84%
Årdal (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fana at home — creates 2.73, concedes 1.42 · 26 matches

Årdal away — creates 1.54, concedes 3.92 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fana attack 2.73 + Årdal defence 3.92 → ÷2 → 3.33

Årdal attack 1.54 + Fana defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Fana scores more
72%
level
14%
Årdal scores more
14%

Fana at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Fana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 1: Fana 5–0 Årdal

Fana beat Årdal 5-0 in 3. Division - Girone 1 on May 16, 2024.

The match was played at Nesttun Kunstgress in Bergen.