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Årdal vs Fana — 3. Division - Girone 1 2020

Årdal
Årdal
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Fana
Fana
7/11/20243. Division - Girone 13. Division - Girone 1 · Group 1 - 15Jotun Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Årdal36%
×Draw19%
Fana45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Årdal
2.42
Fana
2.70

Fana creates 12% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 26 away

creates per match

Årdal
2.85
Fana
2.31

allows per match

Årdal
3.08
Fana
2.00

finishing

Årdal+0.00on par
Fana+0.00on par

Total goals

88%Over
  • Over88
  • Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

85%Yes
  • Yes85
  • No15

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Årdal ↓

Fana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–25%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–14%
3–25%
3–35%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–23%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
88%12%3.5
74%26%4.5
57%43%

Double chance

Årdal or draw
55%
Årdal or Fana
81%
Draw or Fana
64%

Winning margin

Årdal wins by 2+
20%
Fana wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Årdal 1+ goals
91%
Årdal 2+ goals
69%
Årdal 3+ goals
43%
Fana 1+ goals
93%
Fana 2+ goals
75%
Fana 3+ goals
50%

Draw no bet

Årdal (draw refunded)
44%
Fana (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
81%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Årdal at home — creates 2.85, concedes 3.08 · 13 matches

Fana away — creates 2.31, concedes 2.00 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Årdal attack 2.85 + Fana defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.42

Fana attack 2.31 + Årdal defence 3.08 → ÷2 → 2.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Årdal scores more
36%
level
19%
Fana scores more
45%

Fana at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Fana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Årdal 2 – 1 Fana

Årdal beat Fana 2-1 in 3. Division - Girone 1 on July 11, 2024.

The match was played at Jotun Stadion in Øvre Årdal.