Famos Vojkovići 1–2 BSK Banja Luka: Result & Stats

Famos Vojkovići

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

BSK Banja Luka

10/19/2024

1st League - RS · RS - 12Stadion u centru Vojkovića

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Famos Vojkovići51%

×Draw25%

BSK Banja Luka24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Famos VojkovićiExpected goals in this matchBSK Banja Luka

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.02

Famos Vojkovići

1.60

BSK Banja Luka

1.02

Famos Vojkovići creates 57% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 48 away

1.71

creates per match

1.27

0.76

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Famos Vojkovići

1.71

BSK Banja Luka

1.27

allows per match

Famos Vojkovići

0.76

BSK Banja Luka

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Famos Vojkovići+0.00on par

BSK Banja Luka+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Famos Vojkovići ↓

BSK Banja Luka →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Famos Vojkovići or draw

76%

Famos Vojkovići or BSK Banja Luka

75%

Draw or BSK Banja Luka

49%

Winning margin

Famos Vojkovići wins by 2+

27%

BSK Banja Luka wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Famos Vojkovići 1+ goals

80%

Famos Vojkovići 2+ goals

47%

Famos Vojkovići 3+ goals

22%

BSK Banja Luka 1+ goals

64%

BSK Banja Luka 2+ goals

27%

BSK Banja Luka 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Famos Vojkovići (draw refunded)

68%

BSK Banja Luka (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Famos Vojkovići at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.76 · 66 matches

BSK Banja Luka away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.50 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Famos Vojkovići attack 1.71 + BSK Banja Luka defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.60

BSK Banja Luka attack 1.27 + Famos Vojkovići defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Famos Vojkovići scores more

51%

level

25%

BSK Banja Luka scores more

24%

Famos Vojkovići at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Famos Vojkovići will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff