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Famalicão W vs Estoril Praia W — 1a Divisão - Women 2022

Famalicão W
Famalicão W
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Estoril Praia W
Estoril Praia W
3/15/20251a Divisão - Women1a Divisão - Women · Round 18Complexo Desportivo FC Famalicão - Campo 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Famalicão W45%
×Draw21%
Estoril Praia W34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Famalicão W
2.13
Estoril Praia W
1.83

Famalicão W creates 16% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 11 away

creates per match

Famalicão W
1.61
Estoril Praia W
1.82

allows per match

Famalicão W
1.85
Estoril Praia W
2.64

finishing

Famalicão W+0.00on par
Estoril Praia W+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Famalicão W ↓

Estoril Praia W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Famalicão W or draw
66%
Famalicão W or Estoril Praia W
79%
Draw or Estoril Praia W
55%

Winning margin

Famalicão W wins by 2+
26%
Estoril Praia W wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Famalicão W 1+ goals
88%
Famalicão W 2+ goals
63%
Famalicão W 3+ goals
35%
Estoril Praia W 1+ goals
84%
Estoril Praia W 2+ goals
54%
Estoril Praia W 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Famalicão W (draw refunded)
57%
Estoril Praia W (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Famalicão W at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.85 · 33 matches

Estoril Praia W away — creates 1.82, concedes 2.64 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Famalicão W attack 1.61 + Estoril Praia W defence 2.64 → ÷2 → 2.13

Estoril Praia W attack 1.82 + Famalicão W defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Famalicão W scores more
45%
level
21%
Estoril Praia W scores more
34%

Famalicão W at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Famalicão W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Famalicão W vs Estoril Praia W

Famalicão W and Estoril Praia W drew 2-2 in 1a Divisão - Women on March 15, 2025.

The match was played at Complexo Desportivo FC Famalicão - Campo 2 in Vila Nova de Famalicão.