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Estoril Praia W vs Famalicão W — 1a Divisão - Women 2022

Estoril Praia W
Estoril Praia W
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Famalicão W
Famalicão W
11/2/20241a Divisão - Women1a Divisão - Women · Round 7Estádio das Seixas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Estoril Praia W31%
×Draw25%
Famalicão W44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Estoril Praia W
1.29
Famalicão W
1.59

Famalicão W creates 23% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 33 away

creates per match

Estoril Praia W
0.73
Famalicão W
1.36

allows per match

Estoril Praia W
1.82
Famalicão W
1.85

finishing

Estoril Praia W+0.00on par
Famalicão W+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estoril Praia W ↓

Famalicão W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Estoril Praia W or draw
56%
Estoril Praia W or Famalicão W
75%
Draw or Famalicão W
69%

Winning margin

Estoril Praia W wins by 2+
13%
Famalicão W wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Estoril Praia W 1+ goals
72%
Estoril Praia W 2+ goals
37%
Estoril Praia W 3+ goals
14%
Famalicão W 1+ goals
80%
Famalicão W 2+ goals
47%
Famalicão W 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Estoril Praia W (draw refunded)
41%
Famalicão W (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Estoril Praia W at home — creates 0.73, concedes 1.82 · 11 matches

Famalicão W away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.85 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Estoril Praia W attack 0.73 + Famalicão W defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.29

Famalicão W attack 1.36 + Estoril Praia W defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Estoril Praia W scores more
31%
level
25%
Famalicão W scores more
44%

Famalicão W at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Famalicão W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1a Divisão - Women: Estoril Praia W 3–1 Famalicão W

Estoril Praia W beat Famalicão W 3-1 in 1a Divisão - Women on November 2, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio das Seixas in Malveira, Mafra.