Famalicao 3–2 Vizela: Result & Stats

Famalicao

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Vizela

J. Cádiz 90+5'

Riccieli 43'

Chiquinho 8'

S. Petrov 80'

J. Lokilo 55'

4/6/2024

Primeira Liga · Round 28Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Famalicao49%

×Draw25%

Vizela26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FamalicaoExpected goals in this matchVizela

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.07

Famalicao

1.56

Vizela

1.07

Famalicao creates 46% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 52 away

1.33

creates per match

1.02

1.13

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Famalicao

1.33

Vizela

1.02

allows per match

Famalicao

1.13

Vizela

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Famalicao+0.00on par

Vizela+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Famalicao ↓

Vizela →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Famalicao or draw

74%

Famalicao or Vizela

75%

Draw or Vizela

51%

Winning margin

Famalicao wins by 2+

25%

Vizela wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Famalicao 1+ goals

79%

Famalicao 2+ goals

46%

Famalicao 3+ goals

21%

Vizela 1+ goals

66%

Vizela 2+ goals

29%

Vizela 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Famalicao (draw refunded)

65%

Vizela (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Famalicao at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.13 · 119 matches

Vizela away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.79 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Famalicao attack 1.33 + Vizela defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.56

Vizela attack 1.02 + Famalicao defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Famalicao scores more

49%

level

25%

Vizela scores more

26%

Famalicao at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Famalicao will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Chiquinho

Famalicao · M

8.0

Match Events

8'

11'

20'

43'

46'

Anderson← João Escoval

47'

Aleksandar Busnić

55'

J. Lokilo

63'

Sorriso← J. Rodríguez

69'

Diogo Nascimento← A. Busnić

74'

Martín Aguirregabiria← Nathan

74'

Filipe Soares← Gustavo Sá

80'

S. Petrov

82'

Zaydou Youssouf

83'

Domingos Quina← J. Lokilo

87'

Théo Fonseca← M. Topić

90+5'

Jhonder Cádiz

90+2'

Francisco Moura

90'

Riccieli

90+2'

Alberto Soro← S. Essende

90+5'

J. Cádiz↳ Filipe Soares

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FamalicaoVizela

Overview

47%Possession53%

18Total Shots10

1.20Expected Goals (xG)1.94

1Corners5

16Fouls19

Shots

18Total Shots10

8On Target5

8Off Target4

2Blocked1

14Inside Box7

4Outside Box3

Passing

47%Possession53%

364Total Passes420

299Accurate Passes346

82%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

Discipline

16Fouls19

6Yellow Cards1

3Offsides0

Match Recap: Famalicao vs Vizela

Famalicao beat Vizela 3-2 in Primeira Liga on April 6, 2024.

Goals: Chiquinho (8'), Riccieli (43'), J. Lokilo (55'), S. Petrov (80'), J. Cádiz (90+5').

Vizela controlled possession (53%) and registered 10 shots to 18.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho in Vila Nova de Famalicão.

Famalicao vs Vizela — Primeira Liga 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Famalicao vs Vizela