Famalicao 2–1 Vizela: Result & Stats

Famalicao

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Vizela

Iván Jaime 81'

Alexandre Penetra 45+1'

Kiko Bondoso 49'

1/6/2023

Primeira Liga · Round 15Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Famalicao49%

×Draw25%

Vizela26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FamalicaoExpected goals in this matchVizela

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.07

Famalicao

1.56

Vizela

1.07

Famalicao creates 46% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 52 away

1.33

creates per match

1.02

1.13

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Famalicao

1.33

Vizela

1.02

allows per match

Famalicao

1.13

Vizela

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Famalicao+0.00on par

Vizela+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Famalicao ↓

Vizela →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Famalicao or draw

74%

Famalicao or Vizela

75%

Draw or Vizela

51%

Winning margin

Famalicao wins by 2+

25%

Vizela wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Famalicao 1+ goals

79%

Famalicao 2+ goals

46%

Famalicao 3+ goals

21%

Vizela 1+ goals

66%

Vizela 2+ goals

29%

Vizela 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Famalicao (draw refunded)

65%

Vizela (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Famalicao at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.13 · 119 matches

Vizela away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.79 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Famalicao attack 1.33 + Vizela defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.56

Vizela attack 1.02 + Famalicao defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Famalicao scores more

49%

level

25%

Vizela scores more

26%

Famalicao at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Famalicao will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Iván Jaime

Famalicao · F

7.9

Match Events

18'

Bruno Wilson

32'

Iván Jaime

43'

Igor Julião

45+1'

Alexandre Penetra↳ Iván Jaime

49'

Kiko Bondoso↳ Samú

62'

Gustavo Assunção

66'

Matheus Pereira

67'

Rui Fonte← Gustavo Sá

67'

Ivo Rodrigues← Pablo

72'

Samu

75'

Claudemir

75'

A. Méndez← Kiko Bondoso

79'

David Tavares← Gustavo Assunção

81'

Iván Jaime↳ Ivo Rodrigues

82'

Tomás Silva← Samú

82'

K. Zohi← Nuno Moreira

85'

Alex Méndez

89'

F. Etim← Claudemir

89'

Carlos Muñoz← Matheus Pereira

90+2'

Santiago Colombatto

90+3'

Z. Youssouf← Iván Jaime

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FamalicaoVizela

Overview

50%Possession50%

9Total Shots7

6Corners4

14Fouls11

Shots

9Total Shots7

3On Target4

1Off Target3

5Blocked0

6Inside Box3

3Outside Box4

Passing

50%Possession50%

471Total Passes482

389Accurate Passes384

83%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

14Fouls11

3Yellow Cards6

1Offsides1