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Famalicao vs Tondela — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Famalicao
Famalicao
Preview
08:00
Tondela
Tondela
7/25/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies
Big match
36%
Famalicao
model favours
36%28%36%

Famalicao are unbeaten in 16 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
60%
under 2.5 goals
47%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Famalicao36%
×Draw28%
Tondela36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Famalicao
1.15
Tondela
1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 3 away

creates per match

Famalicao
1.29
Tondela
2.00

allows per match

Famalicao
0.29
Tondela
1.00

finishing

Famalicao+0.00on par
Tondela+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Famalicao ↓

Tondela →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Famalicao or draw
64%
Famalicao or Tondela
72%
Draw or Tondela
64%

Winning margin

Famalicao wins by 2+
15%
Tondela wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Famalicao 1+ goals
68%
Famalicao 2+ goals
32%
Famalicao 3+ goals
11%
Tondela 1+ goals
68%
Tondela 2+ goals
32%
Tondela 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Famalicao (draw refunded)
50%
Tondela (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Famalicao at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.29 · 7 matches

Tondela away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Famalicao attack 1.29 + Tondela defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.15

Tondela attack 2.00 + Famalicao defence 0.29 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Famalicao scores more
36%
level
28%
Tondela scores more
36%

Famalicao at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Famalicao will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Tondela score first in only 16% of matches
  • Famalicao score first in only 21% of matches
  • Tondela have scored in 7 games running
  • Both teams score in only 32% of Famalicao’s matches
  • Tondela win just 24% of their away games
  • Famalicao matches are rarely goalless — only 4.5% end 0-0

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Famalicao
DDWWW
Tondela
WDWLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Famalicao host Tondela

July 25, 2026: Famalicao take on Tondela in Friendlies Clubs. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.