Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Falu BS vs Dalkurd FF — Division 2 - Norra Svealand 2019

Falu BS
Falu BS
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Dalkurd FF
Dalkurd FF
10/19/2024Division 2 - Norra SvealandDivision 2 - Norra Svealand · Norra Svealand - 26Kopparvallen B

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Falu BS63%
×Draw20%
Dalkurd FF17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Falu BS
2.15
Dalkurd FF
1.02

Falu BS creates 111% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 13 away

creates per match

Falu BS
1.61
Dalkurd FF
1.23

allows per match

Falu BS
0.82
Dalkurd FF
2.69

finishing

Falu BS+0.00on par
Dalkurd FF+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Falu BS ↓

Dalkurd FF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Falu BS or draw
83%
Falu BS or Dalkurd FF
80%
Draw or Dalkurd FF
37%

Winning margin

Falu BS wins by 2+
39%
Dalkurd FF wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Falu BS 1+ goals
88%
Falu BS 2+ goals
63%
Falu BS 3+ goals
36%
Dalkurd FF 1+ goals
64%
Dalkurd FF 2+ goals
27%
Dalkurd FF 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Falu BS (draw refunded)
79%
Dalkurd FF (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Falu BS at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.82 · 33 matches

Dalkurd FF away — creates 1.23, concedes 2.69 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Falu BS attack 1.61 + Dalkurd FF defence 2.69 → ÷2 → 2.15

Dalkurd FF attack 1.23 + Falu BS defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Falu BS scores more
63%
level
20%
Dalkurd FF scores more
17%

Falu BS at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Falu BS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Falu BS vs Dalkurd FF

Falu BS beat Dalkurd FF 2-1 in Division 2 - Norra Svealand on October 19, 2024.

The match was played at Kopparvallen B in Falun.