Dalkurd FF 1–1 Falu BS: Result & Stats

Dalkurd FF

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Falu BS

6/15/2024

Division 2 - Norra Svealand · Norra Svealand - 12Sävja IP 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Dalkurd FF24%

×Draw22%

Falu BS54%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dalkurd FFExpected goals in this matchFalu BS

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

2.01

Dalkurd FF

1.28

Falu BS

2.01

Falu BS creates 57% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 33 away

1.23

creates per match

1.64

2.38

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Dalkurd FF

1.23

Falu BS

1.64

allows per match

Dalkurd FF

2.38

Falu BS

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dalkurd FF+0.00on par

Falu BS+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dalkurd FF ↓

Falu BS →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–28%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Dalkurd FF or draw

46%

Dalkurd FF or Falu BS

78%

Draw or Falu BS

76%

Winning margin

Dalkurd FF wins by 2+

10%

Falu BS wins by 2+

32%

Team goals

Dalkurd FF 1+ goals

72%

Dalkurd FF 2+ goals

37%

Dalkurd FF 3+ goals

14%

Falu BS 1+ goals

87%

Falu BS 2+ goals

59%

Falu BS 3+ goals

32%

Draw no bet

Dalkurd FF (draw refunded)

31%

Falu BS (draw refunded)

69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dalkurd FF at home — creates 1.23, concedes 2.38 · 13 matches

Falu BS away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.33 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dalkurd FF attack 1.23 + Falu BS defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.28

Falu BS attack 1.64 + Dalkurd FF defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 2.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Dalkurd FF scores more

24%

level

22%

Falu BS scores more

54%

Falu BS at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Falu BS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff