Falkirk 2–0 Arbroath: Result & Stats | FA Cup

Falkirk

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Arbroath

C. Sammon 66'

D. McManus 47'

1/28/2020

FA Cup · 4th Round ReplaysFalkirk Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Falkirk37%

×Draw28%

Arbroath35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FalkirkExpected goals in this matchArbroath

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.17

Falkirk

1.21

Arbroath

1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

1.43

creates per match

1.20

1.14

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Falkirk

1.43

Arbroath

1.20

allows per match

Falkirk

1.14

Arbroath

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Falkirk+0.00on par

Arbroath+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Falkirk ↓

Arbroath →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Falkirk or draw

65%

Falkirk or Arbroath

72%

Draw or Arbroath

63%

Winning margin

Falkirk wins by 2+

16%

Arbroath wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Falkirk 1+ goals

70%

Falkirk 2+ goals

34%

Falkirk 3+ goals

12%

Arbroath 1+ goals

69%

Arbroath 2+ goals

33%

Arbroath 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Falkirk (draw refunded)

51%

Arbroath (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Falkirk at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

Arbroath away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Falkirk attack 1.43 + Arbroath defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.21

Arbroath attack 1.20 + Falkirk defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Falkirk scores more

37%

level

28%

Arbroath scores more

35%

Falkirk at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Falkirk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

47'

D. McManus

59'

D. Gold← M. Virtanen

61'

L. Donnelly

66'

C. Sammon↳ D. McManus

70'

D. McMillan← C. Sammon

70'

L. Chalmers← M. McKenna

70'

O. Kader← B. Linn

74'

J. Todd← C. Telfer

77'

M. Doyle

83'

R. De Vita← A. Connolly

Falkirk

Arbroath

21

2

4

5

3

6

16

8

▼

McKenna

22

▼

Virtanen

11

▼

15

31

3

16

2

5

4

6

21

▼

Telfer

7

▼

Connolly

18

⚽

▼

Sammon

9

⚽A

McManus

70'▲D. McMillan←▼C. Sammon

74'▲J. Todd←▼C. Telfer

83'▲R. De Vita←▼A. Connolly

Falkirk substitutes

29McMillan19Todd23Vita8McShane1Bell17Leitch

Manager: D. Campbell

59'▲D. Gold←▼M. Virtanen

70'▲L. Chalmers←▼M. McKenna

70'▲O. Kader←▼B. Linn

Arbroath substitutes

7Gold23Chalmers12Kader10Swankie18Murphy1Jamieson