Arbroath 1–2 Falkirk: Result & Stats | FA Cup

Arbroath

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Falkirk

R. Mutch 8' (OG)

K. Fotheringham 87'

C. Telfer 42'

3/23/2021

FA Cup · 2nd RoundGayfield Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Arbroath27%

×Draw23%

Falkirk50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ArbroathExpected goals in this matchFalkirk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.78

Arbroath

1.25

Falkirk

1.78

Falkirk creates 42% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 9 away

1.38

creates per match

2.56

1.00

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

Arbroath

1.38

Falkirk

2.56

allows per match

Arbroath

1.00

Falkirk

1.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arbroath+0.00on par

Falkirk+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arbroath ↓

Falkirk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Arbroath or draw

50%

Arbroath or Falkirk

77%

Draw or Falkirk

73%

Winning margin

Arbroath wins by 2+

11%

Falkirk wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Arbroath 1+ goals

71%

Arbroath 2+ goals

36%

Arbroath 3+ goals

13%

Falkirk 1+ goals

83%

Falkirk 2+ goals

53%

Falkirk 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Arbroath (draw refunded)

35%

Falkirk (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arbroath at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

Falkirk away — creates 2.56, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arbroath attack 1.38 + Falkirk defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.25

Falkirk attack 2.56 + Arbroath defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Arbroath scores more

27%

level

23%

Falkirk scores more

50%

Falkirk at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Falkirk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

R. MutchOwn goal

31'

B. Williamson← B. Linn

36'

B. Williamson

42'

C. Telfer↳ A. Francis

46'

D. Gold← C. Pignatiello

49'

K. McClelland

71'

K. Fotheringham← M. Gomis

79'

P. Dixon← D. McClelland

85'

M. McKenna← S. Stewart

87'

K. Fotheringham

Arbroath

Falkirk

1

🥅

Mutch

4

Hall

72

▼

McClellan

19

Deveney

15

Neilson

14

▼

Gomis

21

⚽

Telfer

18

Sammon

16

A

17

10

1

4

5

3

22

▼

Pignatiel

28

Craigen

12

▼

Stewart

16

Moore

9

Hilson

11

▼

Linn

19

Hamilton

Manager: D. Campbell

31'▲B. Williamson←▼B. Linn

46'▲D. Gold←▼C. Pignatiello

85'▲M. McKenna←▼S. Stewart

Arbroath substitutes

18Williamson7Gold8McKenna6Whatley21Gallacher

Manager: D. McCracken

71'▲K. Fotheringham←▼M. Gomis

79'▲P. Dixon←▼D. McClelland

Falkirk substitutes

24Fotheringham3Dixon38Morrison20Laverty9Keena22Sneddon25Cantley