Falkenbergs FF 2–0 Vasby United: Result & Stats

Falkenbergs FF

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Vasby United

4/7/2018

Superettan · Round 2Falcon Alkoholfri Arena (Falkenberg)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Falkenbergs FF49%

×Draw24%

Vasby United26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Falkenbergs FFExpected goals in this matchVasby United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.14

Falkenbergs FF

1.65

Vasby United

1.14

Falkenbergs FF creates 45% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 76 away

1.70

creates per match

1.01

1.26

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Falkenbergs FF

1.70

Vasby United

1.01

allows per match

Falkenbergs FF

1.26

Vasby United

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Falkenbergs FF+0.00on par

Vasby United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Falkenbergs FF ↓

Vasby United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Falkenbergs FF or draw

74%

Falkenbergs FF or Vasby United

76%

Draw or Vasby United

51%

Winning margin

Falkenbergs FF wins by 2+

26%

Vasby United wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Falkenbergs FF 1+ goals

81%

Falkenbergs FF 2+ goals

49%

Falkenbergs FF 3+ goals

23%

Vasby United 1+ goals

68%

Vasby United 2+ goals

32%

Vasby United 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Falkenbergs FF (draw refunded)

65%

Vasby United (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Falkenbergs FF at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.26 · 54 matches

Vasby United away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.59 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Falkenbergs FF attack 1.70 + Vasby United defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.65

Vasby United attack 1.01 + Falkenbergs FF defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Falkenbergs FF scores more

49%

level

24%

Vasby United scores more

26%

Falkenbergs FF at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Falkenbergs FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff