Falkenbergs FF 3–4 AFC Eskilstuna: Result & Stats

Falkenbergs FF

FT

3 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

AFC Eskilstuna

K. Kizito 88'

N. Peter 61', 56'

A. Coffey 75', 49', 35'

V. Götesson 12'

11/7/2021

Superettan · Round 28Falcon Alkoholfri Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Falkenbergs FF49%

×Draw24%

AFC Eskilstuna26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Falkenbergs FFExpected goals in this matchAFC Eskilstuna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.14

Falkenbergs FF

1.65

AFC Eskilstuna

1.14

Falkenbergs FF creates 45% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 76 away

1.70

creates per match

1.01

1.26

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Falkenbergs FF

1.70

AFC Eskilstuna

1.01

allows per match

Falkenbergs FF

1.26

AFC Eskilstuna

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Falkenbergs FF+0.00on par

AFC Eskilstuna+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Falkenbergs FF ↓

AFC Eskilstuna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Falkenbergs FF or draw

74%

Falkenbergs FF or AFC Eskilstuna

76%

Draw or AFC Eskilstuna

51%

Winning margin

Falkenbergs FF wins by 2+

26%

AFC Eskilstuna wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Falkenbergs FF 1+ goals

81%

Falkenbergs FF 2+ goals

49%

Falkenbergs FF 3+ goals

23%

AFC Eskilstuna 1+ goals

68%

AFC Eskilstuna 2+ goals

32%

AFC Eskilstuna 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Falkenbergs FF (draw refunded)

65%

AFC Eskilstuna (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Falkenbergs FF at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.26 · 54 matches

AFC Eskilstuna away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.59 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Falkenbergs FF attack 1.70 + AFC Eskilstuna defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.65

AFC Eskilstuna attack 1.01 + Falkenbergs FF defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Falkenbergs FF scores more

49%

level

24%

AFC Eskilstuna scores more

26%

Falkenbergs FF at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Falkenbergs FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

V. Götesson

33'

Kazuki Takahashi

35'

A. Coffey

45+1'

Alexander Ahl Holmstrom

46'

46'

46'

46'

49'

50'

56'

61'

68'

68'

A. Linnér← V. Götesson

72'

Felix Michel

75'

A. Coffey

83'

A. Larsson← A. Coffey

88'

K. Kizito

90'

G. Aguda← L. Borgström

90+5'

R. Åstedt← I. Lushaku

Possession

Shots

Statistics

FalkenbergsAFC

Overview

45%Possession55%

9Total Shots16

5Corners9

17Fouls12

Shots

9Total Shots16

6On Target7

3Off Target9

Passing

45%Possession55%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

17Fouls12

2Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

6Offsides3

Superettan: Falkenbergs FF 3–4 AFC Eskilstuna

AFC Eskilstuna beat Falkenbergs FF 4-3 in Superettan on November 7, 2021.

Goals: V. Götesson (12'), A. Coffey (35', 49', 75'), N. Peter (56', 61'), K. Kizito (88').

AFC Eskilstuna controlled possession (55%) and registered 16 shots to 9.

The match was played at Falcon Alkoholfri Arena in Falkenberg.

Falkenbergs FF vs AFC Eskilstuna — Superettan 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Statistics

Superettan: Falkenbergs FF 3–4 AFC Eskilstuna