Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

AFC Eskilstuna vs Falkenbergs FF — Superettan 2026

AFC Eskilstuna
AFC Eskilstuna
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Falkenbergs FF
Falkenbergs FF
A. Coffey 74'
K. Kizito 54'
6/12/2021SuperettanSuperettan · Round 10Tunavallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

AFC Eskilstuna44%
×Draw25%
Falkenbergs FF31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AFC Eskilstuna
1.58
Falkenbergs FF
1.28

AFC Eskilstuna creates 23% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 54 away

creates per match

AFC Eskilstuna
1.59
Falkenbergs FF
1.61

allows per match

AFC Eskilstuna
0.95
Falkenbergs FF
1.57

finishing

AFC Eskilstuna+0.00on par
Falkenbergs FF+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AFC Eskilstuna ↓

Falkenbergs FF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

AFC Eskilstuna or draw
69%
AFC Eskilstuna or Falkenbergs FF
75%
Draw or Falkenbergs FF
56%

Winning margin

AFC Eskilstuna wins by 2+
22%
Falkenbergs FF wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

AFC Eskilstuna 1+ goals
79%
AFC Eskilstuna 2+ goals
47%
AFC Eskilstuna 3+ goals
21%
Falkenbergs FF 1+ goals
72%
Falkenbergs FF 2+ goals
37%
Falkenbergs FF 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

AFC Eskilstuna (draw refunded)
59%
Falkenbergs FF (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AFC Eskilstuna at home — creates 1.59, concedes 0.95 · 78 matches

Falkenbergs FF away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.57 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AFC Eskilstuna attack 1.59 + Falkenbergs FF defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.58

Falkenbergs FF attack 1.61 + AFC Eskilstuna defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

AFC Eskilstuna scores more
44%
level
25%
Falkenbergs FF scores more
31%

AFC Eskilstuna at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "AFC Eskilstuna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'
Kazuki Takahashi
53'
Ibrahim Blati Toure
54'
K. Kizito
71'
V. Fors← J. Manns
71'
I. Lushaku← I. Touré
71'
L. Sabah← K. Takahashi
73'
Axel Norén
74'
A. Coffey
78'
Robin Tihi
80'
O. Hintsa← K. Kizito
80'
E. Sylisufaj← L. Borgström
82'
André Alsanati
84'
M. Nilsson← C. Carlsson
86'
V. Götesson← A. Ahl-Holmström
86'
C. Omeje← A. Coffey
87'
Victor Fors

Possession

55%AFC

Shots

6AFC

Statistics

AFCFalkenbergs
Overview
55%Possession45%
6Total Shots6
5Corners4
12Fouls10
Shots
6Total Shots6
3On Target3
3Off Target3
Passing
55%Possession45%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
Discipline
12Fouls10
5Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0
6Offsides6

Superettan: AFC Eskilstuna 1–1 Falkenbergs FF

AFC Eskilstuna and Falkenbergs FF drew 1-1 in Superettan on June 12, 2021.

Goals: K. Kizito (54'), A. Coffey (74').

AFC Eskilstuna controlled possession (55%) and registered 6 shots to 6.

The match was played at Tunavallen in Eskilstuna.