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Falcons vs Bavarians — Premier League 2020

Falcons
Falcons
FT
7 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Bavarians
Bavarians
4/28/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 18Football Centre MFF

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Falcons83%
×Draw10%
Bavarians7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Falcons
3.72
Bavarians
1.07

Falcons creates 248% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 13 away

creates per match

Falcons
2.74
Bavarians
1.15

allows per match

Falcons
1.00
Bavarians
4.69

finishing

Falcons+0.00on par
Bavarians+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Falcons ↓

Bavarians →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–14%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–18%
4–24%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (8%) · grid covers 74% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
84%16%3.5
68%32%4.5
48%52%

Double chance

Falcons or draw
93%
Falcons or Bavarians
90%
Draw or Bavarians
17%

Winning margin

Falcons wins by 2+
67%
Bavarians wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Falcons 1+ goals
97%
Falcons 2+ goals
88%
Falcons 3+ goals
69%
Bavarians 1+ goals
66%
Bavarians 2+ goals
29%
Bavarians 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Falcons (draw refunded)
92%
Bavarians (draw refunded)
8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Falcons at home — creates 2.74, concedes 1.00 · 68 matches

Bavarians away — creates 1.15, concedes 4.69 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Falcons attack 2.74 + Bavarians defence 4.69 → ÷2 → 3.72

Bavarians attack 1.15 + Falcons defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 83%?"

Falcons scores more
83%
level
10%
Bavarians scores more
7%

Falcons at 83% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 83% does not mean "Falcons will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Falcons vs Bavarians

Falcons beat Bavarians 7-0 in Premier League on April 28, 2024.

The match was played at Football Centre MFF in Ulaanbaatar.