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Bavarians vs Falcons — Premier League 2020

Bavarians
Bavarians
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
Falcons
Falcons
10/29/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 9Football Centre MFF

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Bavarians4%
×Draw7%
Falcons89%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bavarians
1.19
Falcons
4.86

Falcons creates 308% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 72 away

creates per match

Bavarians
1.29
Falcons
3.08

allows per match

Bavarians
6.64
Falcons
1.08

finishing

Bavarians+0.00on par
Falcons+0.00on par

Total goals

92%Over
  • Over92
  • Under8

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bavarians ↓

Falcons →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–24%
0–36%
0–47%
1
1–00%
1–12%
1–24%
1–37%
1–48%
2
2–00%
2–11%
2–23%
2–34%
2–45%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–21%
3–32%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–41%

Most likely 1–4 (8%) · grid covers 59% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
98%2%2.5
92%8%3.5
81%19%4.5
64%36%

Double chance

Bavarians or draw
11%
Bavarians or Falcons
93%
Draw or Falcons
96%

Winning margin

Bavarians wins by 2+
1%
Falcons wins by 2+
76%

Team goals

Bavarians 1+ goals
70%
Bavarians 2+ goals
33%
Bavarians 3+ goals
12%
Falcons 1+ goals
99%
Falcons 2+ goals
94%
Falcons 3+ goals
82%

Draw no bet

Bavarians (draw refunded)
5%
Falcons (draw refunded)
95%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bavarians at home — creates 1.29, concedes 6.64 · 14 matches

Falcons away — creates 3.08, concedes 1.08 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bavarians attack 1.29 + Falcons defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.19

Falcons attack 3.08 + Bavarians defence 6.64 → ÷2 → 4.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 89%?"

Bavarians scores more
4%
level
7%
Falcons scores more
89%

Falcons at 89% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 89% does not mean "Falcons will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bavarians vs Falcons

Falcons beat Bavarians 3-0 in Premier League on October 29, 2023.

The match was played at Football Centre MFF in Ulaanbaatar.