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Falcon vs ASA — Serie D 2018

Falcon
Falcon
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
ASA
ASA
6/3/2023Serie DSerie D · 1st Phase - 5Estádio Estadual Lourival Baptista

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Falcon40%
×Draw31%
ASA28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Falcon
1.07
ASA
0.85

Falcon creates 26% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 57 away

creates per match

Falcon
1.00
ASA
0.95

allows per match

Falcon
0.75
ASA
1.14

finishing

Falcon+0.00on par
ASA+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Falcon ↓

ASA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–112%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Falcon or draw
72%
Falcon or ASA
69%
Draw or ASA
60%

Winning margin

Falcon wins by 2+
16%
ASA wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Falcon 1+ goals
66%
Falcon 2+ goals
29%
Falcon 3+ goals
9%
ASA 1+ goals
57%
ASA 2+ goals
21%
ASA 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Falcon (draw refunded)
59%
ASA (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Falcon at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.75 · 8 matches

ASA away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.14 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Falcon attack 1.00 + ASA defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.07

ASA attack 0.95 + Falcon defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Falcon scores more
40%
level
31%
ASA scores more
28%

Falcon at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Falcon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Falcon 0 – 1 ASA

ASA beat Falcon 1-0 in Serie D on June 3, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio Estadual Lourival Baptista in Aracaju, Sergipe.