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ASA vs Falcon — Serie D 2018

ASA
ASA
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Falcon
Falcon
6/28/2023Serie DSerie D · 1st Phase - 10Estádio Municipal Coaracy da Mata Fonseca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

ASA46%
×Draw26%
Falcon28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ASA
1.44
Falcon
1.07

ASA creates 35% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 8 away

creates per match

ASA
1.38
Falcon
1.25

allows per match

ASA
0.89
Falcon
1.50

finishing

ASA+0.00on par
Falcon+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ASA ↓

Falcon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

ASA or draw
72%
ASA or Falcon
74%
Draw or Falcon
54%

Winning margin

ASA wins by 2+
22%
Falcon wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

ASA 1+ goals
76%
ASA 2+ goals
42%
ASA 3+ goals
18%
Falcon 1+ goals
66%
Falcon 2+ goals
29%
Falcon 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

ASA (draw refunded)
62%
Falcon (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ASA at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.89 · 56 matches

Falcon away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ASA attack 1.38 + Falcon defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.44

Falcon attack 1.25 + ASA defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

ASA scores more
46%
level
26%
Falcon scores more
28%

ASA at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "ASA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D: ASA 1–0 Falcon

ASA beat Falcon 1-0 in Serie D on June 28, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Coaracy da Mata Fonseca in Arapiraca, Alagoas.